What is happening in Syria and why now?

The Assad household ran Syria for 53 years with an iron fist. Now that has come to an finish.

President Bashar al-Assad took energy in 2000, after his father had dominated for nearly three a long time.

Thirteen years in the past, he brutally crushed a peaceable, pro-democracy rebellion – which changed into a devastating civil warfare. More than half one million folks had been killed and 12 million had been compelled to flee their properties.

But final Wednesday, an Islamist anti-government group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) efficiently led a significant offensive within the north-west, along with allied factions.

The rebels captured Syria’s second-largest metropolis, Aleppo, after which swept southwards down the freeway to the capital Damascus, because the Syrian army collapsed.

Many Syrians say they feel a new sense of freedom – though some are worried in regards to the future.

For years, it felt just like the full-scale warfare in Syria was successfully over after Assad’s authorities regained management of most of Syria’s cities with the assistance of Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed militias.

The entrance traces remained largely frozen. But giant elements of the nation had been nonetheless out of the federal government’s management.

These included northern and japanese areas managed by a Kurdish-led alliance of armed teams supported by the United States, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The rebels’ final stronghold was in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, which border Turkey and the place greater than 4 million folks had been dwelling, lots of them displaced.

The enclave was dominated by HTS, however a lot of allied insurgent factions and jihadist teams had been additionally based mostly there. Turkish-backed insurgent factions – generally known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) – additionally managed territory there with the help of Turkish troops.

The Islamist militant group was arrange in 2012 beneath a unique title, al-Nusra Front, and pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda the next 12 months.

Al-Nusra Front was thought to be one of the crucial efficient and lethal of the teams ranged towards President Assad. But its jihadist ideology gave the impression to be its driving pressure quite than revolutionary zeal – and it was seen on the time as at odds with the primary insurgent coalition generally known as the Free Syrian Army.

In 2016, Al-Nusra broke ties with al-Qaeda and took the title Hayat Tahrir al-Sham when it merged with different factions a 12 months later.

However, the UN, US, UK and a lot of different international locations proceed to contemplate HTS as an al-Qaeda affiliate and continuously seek advice from it as al-Nusra Front. The US has named the group’s chief, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, as a specifically designated world terrorist and supplied a $10m reward for data that results in his seize.

HTS consolidated its energy in Idlib and Aleppo provinces by crushing its rivals, together with al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) group cells. It arrange the so-called Syrian Salvation Government to manage the territory in response to Islamic regulation.

Jawlani said in a CNN interview on Friday that “the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime” and that he deliberate to create a authorities based mostly on establishments and a “council chosen by the people”.

For a number of years, Idlib remained a battleground as Syrian authorities forces tried to regain management.

But in 2020, Turkey and Russia brokered a ceasefire to halt a push by the federal government to retake Idlib. The ceasefire largely held regardless of sporadic combating.

HTS and its allies stated on 27 November that that they had launched an offensive to “deter aggression”, accusing the federal government and allied Iran-backed militias of escalating assaults on civilians within the north-west.

But it got here at a time when the federal government had been weakened by years of warfare, sanctions and corruption, and its allies had been preoccupied with different conflicts.

The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which was essential in serving to push again rebels within the early years of the warfare, had suffered just lately from Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. Israeli strikes had additionally eradicated Iranian army commanders in Syria and degraded provide traces to pro-government militias there. Russia had additionally been additionally distracted by the warfare in Ukraine.

Without them, Assad’s forces had been left uncovered.

The HTS-led rebels took management of most of Aleppo – Syria’s second largest metropolis – on 30 November, solely three days after launching their shock offensive. They stated they confronted little resistance on the bottom after the federal government quickly withdrew its troops and safety forces.

Assad vowed to “crush” the rebels with the assistance of his allies. Russian warplanes intensified their strikes on rebel-held areas and Iran-backed militias despatched reinforcements to bolster the army’s defensive traces round Hama – the following metropolis south on the Aleppo-Damascus freeway.

However, Hama fell to the rebels on Thursday after a number of days of fierce battles that finally prompted the army to withdraw.

The rebels instantly declared that their subsequent purpose was to take Homs, Syria’s third largest metropolis, and achieved that on Saturday evening after solely a day of combating.

At the identical time, different insurgent factions based mostly within the south-west of the nation, which borders Jordan, reached the suburbs of Damascus after taking management of the cities of Deraa and Suweida inside solely 24 hours.

Early on Sunday morning, the HTS-led rebels introduced that that they had entered Damascus and launched detainees on the nation’s most infamous army jail, Saydanaya, the place 1000’s of opposition supporters are believed to have been executed throughout the civil warfare.

Less than two hours later, they declared: “The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled.”

“After 50 years of oppression under Baath rule, and 13 years of crimes and tyranny and [forced] displacement… we announce today the end of this dark period and the start of a new era for Syria,” they stated.

Senior military officers stated the president flew out of the capital for an unknown vacation spot shortly earlier than the rebels arrived.

Assad’s Prime Minister, Mohammed al-Jalali, then introduced in a video that he was “ready to co-operate with” any management that was “chosen by the Syrian people”.

Jawlani ordered his forces to not method official establishments, saying they might stay beneath the authority of the prime minister till they had been “officially” handed over.

The White House stated US President Joe Biden and his workforce had been “closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and staying in constant touch with regional partners”.