Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama: Great expectations for tax cuts and more jobs

Ghana’s former President John Mahama will probably be below monumental stress to fulfill the expectations of voters following his landslide victory in Saturday’s election.

He swept again to energy after eight years in opposition, working what political analyst Nansata Yakubu described as a “masterclass” in campaigning.

He defeated Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia by 56.6% of votes to 41.6% to notch up the largest margin of victory by a candidate in 24 years.

But voter turnout was decrease than within the 2020 election, particularly in a number of the heartlands of Bwaumia’s New Patriotic Party (NPP), suggesting individuals there – disillusioned with its efficiency in authorities – stayed at residence quite than swap sides.

As Mahama’s supporters celebrated his victory, Belinda Amuzu – a instructor within the northern metropolis of Tamale, a stronghold of Mahama – summed up their hopes.

“I’m expecting the new government to change the economy, so that the hardship will come down. He should also prosecute corrupt officials so that it will be a lesson to others,” she advised the BBC.

“The hardship” has change into a typical phrase in Ghana for the reason that financial system hit rock-bottom in 2022, inflicting a cost-of-living disaster that shredded Bawumia’s status as an “economic whizz-kid” – and led to his defeat by the hands of Mahama.

Ghanaian economist Prof Godfred Bokpin advised the BBC the challenges dealing with the subsequent authorities had been big.

“What Ghana needs right now is credible leadership, lean government and efficiency in public service delivery. Without that, there cannot be a future,” he mentioned.

Mahama has promised to deliver down the scale of the cupboard from greater than 80 to round 60, however Prof Bokpin argued it needs to be smaller whereas political analyst Dr Kwame Asah-Asante burdened the necessity for appointments to be on benefit quite than loyalty.

Mahama will probably be flanked by former Education Minister Prof Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, who is ready to change into Ghana’s first feminine vice-president when the brand new authorities takes workplace subsequent month.

Dr Yakubu mentioned her appointment was not one in every of “tokenism” and he or she was not somebody who could possibly be “manipulated”.

“We have a fantastic first female vice-president in Prof Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang,” she advised the BBC Focus on Africa podcast.

Mahama served his first four-year time period as president after profitable in 2012, however misplaced his re-election bid in 2016 as Nana Akufo-Addo rose to energy with Bawumia as his running-mate.

Dr Yakubu mentioned Mahama contested the 2016 election on his monitor document in constructing roads, colleges and hospitals however voters rejected him, as their mantra then was: “We don’t eat infrastructure.”

But, she mentioned, through the Covid pandemic voters got here to understand the infrastructure his authorities had constructed, particularly hospitals.

This – together with the truth that the financial system had plunged right into a deep disaster below the present authorities, forcing it to hunt a $3bn (£2.4bn) bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – led to Mahama being re-elected, Dr Yakubu added.

She advised the BBC that Mahama would now be anticipated to fulfil his marketing campaign promise to create jobs with the intention to deliver down the unemployment price of virtually 15%, and to ease the cost-of-living disaster by scrapping some taxes – or what Ghanaians name “nuisance taxes”.

Mahama has promised to make Ghana a “24-hour economy” by the creation of night-time jobs in each the private and non-private sectors. He mentioned he would give companies tax incentives to remain open at night time and scale back electrical energy costs for them.

But his critics have doubts, mentioning that Ghana plunged into its worst electrical energy disaster throughout his first time period and the facility cuts had been so dangerous that Mahama joked on the time that he was often called “Mr Dumsor” – “dum” means “off” and “sor” means “on” within the native Twi language.

He has additionally promised to abolish a number of taxes – together with the much-criticised digital levy on cell transactions and the one on the carbon emissions produced by petrol or diesel-powered autos.

Prof Bokpin mentioned he doubted the Mahama administration would be capable of fulfil its guarantees.

“They have not done the cost benefit analysis. There’s no budgetary space to translate those promises into actuals,” he mentioned.

But Mahama is assured he’ll show his critics incorrect, saying he intends to renegotiate the situations of the IMF mortgage so cash is freed up for “social intervention programmes” in a rustic the place 7.3 million individuals lived in poverty.

In an interview forward of the election, Mahama advised the BBC the IMF needed “a certain balance” in authorities funds.

“And so if you’re able to cut expenditure, and you’re able to increase revenue and increase non-tax revenue coming in, you’ll be able to create a balance,” he mentioned.

Dr Asah-Asante mentioned Mahama’s expertise as former president held him in good stead to navigate Ghana by uneven waters.

“Of course, he is likely to encounter difficulties, but he has what it takes to turn things around,” the analyst added.

Mahama’s earlier stint in authorities – as vice-president and president – was stricken by corruption allegations, however he has constantly denied any wrongdoing.

In 2020, a UK court docket had discovered that aviation big Airbus had used bribes to safe contracts with Ghana for navy planes between 2009 and 2015.

An investigation then acquired below approach in Ghana, however the Office of the Special Prosecutor, in a call introduced simply months earlier than the election, concluded there was no proof that Mahama was concerned in any corrupt actions himself.

The outgoing authorities has additionally been dogged by corruption allegations, together with over the acquisition of ambulance spare elements at a price of $34.9m and a controversial nationwide cathedral venture by which $58m has been spent with none progress in constructing it.

Mahama promised his authorities would sort out corruption, and be certain that officers had been prosecuted for wrongdoing.

“We are thinking about special courts,” he advised the BBC.

Dr Asah-Asante mentioned Mahama ought to demand monetary accountability from the outgoing authorities throughout a handover section in order that “whatever has gone wrong, he will be able to right” as quickly as his authorities takes workplace subsequent month.

The analyst added that Mahama, who will probably be inaugurated subsequent month when President Akufo-Addo steps down after his two phrases in workplace, had no selection however to fulfill the expectations of Ghanaians – or else they might “punish his government the way they have punished the NPP”.

Mahama succinctly acknowledged this in his victory speech, saying: “Expectations of Ghanaians are very high, and we cannot afford to disappoint them.

“Our greatest days will not be behind us; our greatest days are forward of us. Forward ever – backwards by no means.”