Russian gains accelerate as Ukraine’s Kursk gamble falters

The Russian army is accelerating its good points alongside the entrance line in Ukraine at a vital time for the battle.

Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) exhibits that Russia has gained virtually six instances as a lot territory in 2024 because it did in 2023, and is advancing in direction of key Ukrainian logistical hubs within the japanese Donbas area.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s shock incursion into Russia’s Kursk area is faltering. Russian troops have pushed Kyiv’s offensive backwards. Experts have questioned the success of the offensive, with one calling it a “strategic catastrophe” given manpower shortages confronted by Ukraine.

These developments come at a time of heightened uncertainty with a second Donald Trump administration looming. The US president-elect has vowed to carry the struggle to an in depth when he takes workplace in January, with some fearing he may minimize future army support to Ukraine.

In the primary few months of the struggle the entrance line moved shortly, with Russia gaining floor shortly earlier than being pushed again by a Ukrainian counteroffensive. But in 2023 neither facet made any main good points – with the battle largely sliding right into a stalemate.

But new figures from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) counsel that the story in 2024 is extra beneficial for Russia. The ISW bases its evaluation on confirmed social media footage and studies of troop actions.

The ISW knowledge exhibits Moscow’s forces have seized round 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory to date this yr, in contrast with simply 465 sq km in the entire of 2023, a close to six-fold improve.

Dr Marina Miron, a defence researcher at Kings College London, advised to the BBC that there was a risk the Ukrainian japanese entrance “might actually collapse” if Russia continues to advance at tempo.

More than 1000 sq km was taken between 1 September and three November, suggesting that the push has accelerated in current months. Two areas bearing the brunt of those advances are Kupiansk in Kharkiv area, and Kurakhove, a stepping stone to the important thing logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk area.

Kupiansk and areas to the east of the Oskil river were liberated in the Kharkiv offensive of 2022, however Russia has progressively retaken the latter space. In a current intelligence replace, the UK’s Ministry of Defence stated that Russian forces had been attempting to breach the north-eastern outskirts of the town.

Footage posted on 13 November, and verified by the BBC is in step with this evaluation. The video exhibits a convoy of Russian armour being repelled after making it to inside 4km of the important thing bridge at Kupiansk, the final main highway crossing within the space.

While these studies don’t essentially translate to manage of an space, it’s indicative of how stretched Ukraine’s defensive position has turn into.

Elsewhere, since retaking the town of Vuhledar in October – an elevated place which sits above key provide traces and which Moscow spent two years preventing for – Russia has thrown resources at Kurakhove.

Ukraine’s forces defending the town have to date repelled assaults to the south and east. But the entrance line creeps ever nearer, with Russia additionally threatening to encircle defenders from the north and west.

Col Yevgeny Sasyko, a former head of strategic communications with Ukraine’s normal workers, stated Russia locations “powerful jaws” across the flanks of a metropolis that slowly “grind though” defences till they collapse.

Footage from the town verified by the BBC confirmed large destruction, with residential buildings closely broken.

The ISW concludes Moscow now holds a complete of 110,649 sq km in Ukraine. For comparability, Ukrainian forces seized simply over 1,171 sq km within the first month of its incursion into Kursk – although Russian forces have now retaken practically half of that territory.

Despite its territorial good points, Russia’s advance has come at an enormous price.

An evaluation carried out by BBC Russian confirmed that at the least 78,329 troops have been killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, with Moscow’s losses from September to November this yr greater than one-and-a-half instances better than the identical interval in 2023.

The losses are compounded by the “meat grinder” strategy stated to be favoured by Russian commanders – describing the waves of recruits thrown in direction of Ukrainian positions in a bid to exhaust troops.

Despite the Russian advances, some specialists have famous that the precise velocity of the offensive remains to be sluggish. David Handelman, a army analyst, advised Ukrainian troops within the east had been slowly withdrawing to protect manpower and assets, quite than affected by a broader collapse.

Ukraine launched its shock incursion into Russia’s Kursk area in August. It is unclear why Russia took so lengthy to answer the operation, which noticed Kyiv’s troops shortly acquire management over plenty of border communities.

Dr Miron advised that whereas the Kremlin would endure a home political price for so long as the incursion continued, Russia’s normal workers had been eager to maintain Ukraine’s forces tied down in Kursk as its forces made good points elsewhere alongside the entrance line.

But Moscow is now clearly intent on reclaiming the territory misplaced by itself soil. Some 50,000 troops have been deployed to the area.

Verified movies from the Kursk area present fierce preventing is going down – and that Russia is struggling appreciable losses when it comes to manpower and gear. But the information clearly exhibits Ukraine’s management of the area is shrinking.

Since the beginning of October, Russian counter-attacks have regained some 593 sq km value of territory within the border area, ISW figures confirmed.

The Kursk incursion was initially a significant boon for Ukraine when it comes to morale at a time of great setbacks, and the audacity of the operation was a reminder of its potential to shock and hurt its enemy.

But Dr Miron stated whereas the Kursk incursion was a second of “tactical brilliance” it has additionally been a “strategic catastrophe” for Ukraine.

“The whole idea was to maybe gain some political leverage in potential negotiations, but militarily to draw the Russian forces away from the Donbas in order to liberate Kursk. And what we’re seeing instead is that Ukrainian units are tied down there.”

Some of Kyiv’s most skilled and efficient items are identified to be preventing in Kursk. Mechanised items outfitted with state-of-the-art Western armour are additionally concerned within the offensive.

Ukrainian leaders had hinted that they hoped the incursion would drive Moscow to redirect a few of its forces from japanese Ukraine, slowing the Russian advance there. Instead, specialists say most reinforcements had been moved to Kursk from elements in Ukraine the place the preventing shouldn’t be as intense.

“According to Ukrainian soldiers from different parts of the front, the Russian troops reinforcing Kursk were mainly pulled from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia,” Yurri Clavilier, a land analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, advised the BBC.

“The fighting there is not as intense as it is in the East. Some Russian units attacking Kharkiv were also redirected to Kursk as Ukraine managed to stall the Russian onslaught there,” he added.

The significance of territory to either side is the energy it lends to their place in any potential negotiations. Although no peace negotiations have been mentioned, US President-elect Trump has claimed he may finish the struggle inside 24 hours, with out saying precisely how.

​​On Tuesday, Ukraine fired US-supplied long-range missiles into Russia for the primary time – a day after Washington gave it permission to take action.​​ It is believed that the choice was made partially to assist Ukraine maintain on to a part of the Kursk area, to make use of as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.

But Dr Miron advised the BBC that Russia’s advance has handed them a stronger negotiating place as Trump’s new overseas coverage crew put together to take workplace.

“What they’re controlling right now, it does give them a certain advantage” she stated. “If it came to negotiations, I’m sure that as the Russian side has been stressing, ‘we will do it based on the battlefield configuration’.”

“From a Russian perspective, they have much better cards than the Ukrainians.”

Additional reporting by Alex Murray.