Steve Rosenberg: What will Putin do next?

“What will Vladimir Putin do next?”

It’s a query I’ve been requested rather a lot this week.

Understandably so.

After all, this was the week the Kremlin chief lowered the edge for the usage of Russian nuclear weapons.

It was the week the US and UK crossed (one other) Putin pink line, permitting Ukraine to fireside Western-supplied longer-range missiles into Russia.

It was additionally the week that President Putin, in impact, threatened the UK, America and some other nation supplying Ukraine with such weapons and for such a function.

“We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” the Russian chief mentioned in an deal with to the nation on Thursday night.

So, you may see: “What will Vladimir Putin do next?” is a most urgent query. And, since I’m the BBC’s Russia Editor, you would possibly count on me to have the reply.

I’ll be trustworthy with you. I don’t.

Perhaps even Putin doesn’t know the reply, which makes issues much more severe.

Instead of solutions, some observations.

This week the Kremlin accused the “collective West” of escalating the warfare in Ukraine.

But almost three years of warfare in Ukraine have proven that it’s Vladimir Putin who embraces escalation as a way to attaining his objectives – on this case, management over Ukraine or on the very least peace on Russia’s phrases.

Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his choice to declare 4 Ukrainian territories a part of Russia, his deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk area, his choice on Thursday to focus on the Ukrainian metropolis of Dnipro with a brand new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, adopted up by threats to strike the West – all of those symbolize moments of escalation on this battle.

I as soon as described Vladimir Putin as a automobile with no reverse gear and no brakes, careering down the freeway, accelerator pedal caught to the ground.

From what I can see, little has modified.

Don’t count on the Putinmobile to all of the sudden decelerate or de-escalate now within the face of longer-range missile strikes on Russia.

Escalation, although, is one other matter. That’s a definite risk.

Ukraine can be bracing itself for extra Russian assaults, even heavier bombardments.

Western governments can be assessing the menace stage in mild of Putin’s warnings.

Even earlier than the Kremlin chief’s TV deal with, there had been fears within the West of an upsurge in hybrid Russian warfare.

Last month the pinnacle of MI5 warned that Russian navy intelligence was engaged in a marketing campaign to “generate mayhem on British and European streets”.

“We’ve seen arson, sabotage and more,” he added.

Back in June, Putin suggested that Moscow might arm adversaries of the West if Ukraine were allowed to strike deep into Russia with Western long-range missiles.

“We believe that if someone is thinking it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us,” he mentioned, “why can’t we supply our weapons of the same class to those regions around the world where they will target sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?”

Putin warns West as Russia hits Ukraine with new missile

The question “What will Putin do next?” is normally adopted by: “Would Putin use a nuclear weapon in the Ukraine war?”

The Russian president has dropped some unsubtle hints.

On asserting the beginning of his “special military operation” – the full-scale invasion of Ukraine – he had issued a warning to “those who may be tempted to interfere from the outside”.

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or create threats for our country and our people,” the Kremlin chief declared, “they must know that Russia will respond immediately.

“And the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

Western leaders typically dismissed what they noticed as nuclear sabre-rattling. Since the beginning of the warfare Western governments have crossed a number of Russian “red lines”: offering Ukraine with tanks, superior missile techniques after which F-16 fighter jets.

The “consequences” threatened by the Kremlin by no means materialised.

In September Putin introduced he was decreasing the edge for the usage of nuclear weapons – the decree was revealed this week. A transparent warning to Europe and America to not permit longer-range missile strikes on Russian territory.

Now this pink line, too, has been crossed. In his deal with to the nation Putin confirmed Western experiences that Ukraine had fired US-supplied Atacms and British-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia.

Earlier this week, when pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets requested a retired lieutenant-general how Russia ought to reply to an Atacms assault on Bryansk area, he replied:

“Starting World War Three over strikes on an arms depot in Bryansk region would probably be short-sighted.”

It could be comforting to assume that the Kremlin shares that view.

But Vladimir Putin’s deal with to the nation contained no proof of that.

His message to Ukraine’s supporters within the West seemed to be: it is a pink line I’m severe about, I dare you to cross it.

“Even Putin doesn’t know whether he can use a nuclear weapon, or he can’t. It depends on his emotions,” Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov informed me just lately.

“We know he’s a very emotional man. The decision to begin this war was also an emotional step. Because of that we must take seriously his idea of the changing of the nuclear doctrine. They say the fear of war must return and will contain both sides, but this is also a tool of escalation.

“In this interpretation we must admit that Putin, under some circumstances, can use at least a tactical nuclear weapon in the framework of a limited nuclear war. It will not solve the problem. But it will be the start of a suicidal escalation for the whole world.”

Tactical nuclear weapons are small warheads supposed to be used on the battlefield or a restricted strike.

Vladimir Putin might act on feelings. He can be, clearly, pushed by resentment of the West and seems decided to not again down.

But he additionally is aware of the world may quickly be a really completely different place.

In two months’ time Joe Biden can be out of workplace and Donald Trump can be within the White House.

President-Elect Trump has expressed scepticism relating to US navy help for Ukraine and has been fiercely vital of Nato.

He’s additionally mentioned just lately that speaking to Vladimir Putin could be “a smart thing”.

All of that must be music to Putin’s ears.

Which implies that, regardless of the newest threats and warnings, the Kremlin might determine in opposition to a significant escalation proper now.

That is, if the Kremlin has calculated that Donald Trump will assist finish the warfare on phrases helpful to Russia.

If that calculation modifications, so may Moscow’s response.