Syria analysis: Damascus now in rebels’ crosshairs

The pace with which the established order in Syria – nevertheless unresolved and unsatisfactory – has been turned on its head in latest days has been extraordinary.

Syrian authorities officers and supporters have been nonetheless asserting the military would maintain the road at Hama, at the same time as rebel fighters have been coming into town.

Shortly afterwards, the Syrian army acknowledged that it had pulled out of Hama, ceding management of town for the primary time to insurgent factions.

After capturing two main cities inside every week, the following goal for the insurgents led by the Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is Homs.

Tens of 1000’s of individuals are fleeing town in anticipation of what seems prone to be the following main battle.

The stakes have risen precipitously for President Bashar al-Assad and his key backers, Russia and Iran.

Homs is strategically significantly extra important than both Aleppo or Hama. It straddles a crossroads that leads west to the heartland of assist for the Assad dynasty and south in direction of the capital, Damascus.

Whatever the earlier technique of HTS might have been, because it spent years constructing its energy base within the north-western province of Idlib, the momentum of the previous week now appears to be main inexorably in direction of a direct problem to the persevering with rule of Assad.

In an interview with CNN, HTS chief Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani confirmed the rebels do certainly intention to overthrow the Assad regime

So, consideration is now specializing in whether or not the Syrian chief has the capability to see off this renewed try to topple him from energy.

The Syrian military – which is essentially made up of conscripts – might need misplaced the conflict years in the past if outdoors forces had not come to Assad’s help.

Soldiers are underpaid, under-equipped and sometimes have poor morale, with desertion having lengthy been a problem.

As his army failed to carry Aleppo after which Hama, Assad issued an order elevating troopers’ wage by 50% – however that in itself is unlikely to show the tide.

Russian planes backed up Syrian forces in Hama, however clearly not strongly sufficient to make an affect.

The lack of all out Russian army assist has fuelled hypothesis that Moscow could also be much less in a position to play the sport altering function that it carried out in Syria in 2015. That can be all the way down to nearly three years of conflict in Ukraine, draining its reserves of manpower and army {hardware}.

But Russia nonetheless has compelling causes to remain the course with Assad. President Putin’s decisive, full-scale army intervention, which stored the Syrian chief in energy when he was near defeat, confirmed up the failure of Western allies – the US specifically – to honour their guarantees of assist to the rebels.

The naval base that Russia has maintained for many years within the Syrian port of Tartus provides Moscow its solely army hub within the Mediterranean. If the insurgents are in a position to take Homs, that would doubtlessly open up a route in direction of the Syrian coast that would put the bottom in danger.

It nonetheless appears unlikely that Russia wouldn’t really feel a political and strategic crucial to refocus its firepower on the rebels to maintain Assad in energy, even when solely answerable for a diminished rump of Syria drastically shrunk from the 60% he at the moment controls.

The different large query mark is over Iran and the militias it has backed – together with Hezbollah- and the army experience it has supplied, which have been the opposite key ingredient in retaining Assad in energy.

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem – who took over after Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah – has declared that the group will stand by the Syrian authorities, in opposition to what he has described as jihadist aggression orchestrated by the US and Israel.

But with its management decimated and its fighters nonetheless regrouping after Israel’s floor and air offensive in opposition to the group in Lebanon in latest months, Hezbollah could also be nowhere close to the power it had when it battled on the frontline in opposition to Syrian insurgent factions.

However, it clearly remains to be dedicated to enjoying its half, with safety sources in Lebanon and Syria saying that elite forces from Hezbollah have crossed over into Syria and brought up positions in Homs.

As for Tehran, it at the moment appears to be edging away from each direct and proxy confrontations within the area, in distinction to its way more aggressive technique prior to now few years.

That might restrict its urge for food for the type of full-scale army assist for Assad that it has supplied prior to now.

There has been hypothesis that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq might enter the fray – however each the Iraqi authorities and some of the highly effective Shia leaders, Moqtada al-Sadr, have warned in opposition to this.

Assad’s probabilities of political survival will rely not solely on the capabilities of his armed forces and his key allies, but in addition on the prevailing divisions between the varied teams that oppose him.

Beyond HTS and the factions from Idlib, there are the Kurdish-led forces within the north-east, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army within the north and a number of different teams that also have some buy in numerous areas of the nation.

Among them is the Islamic State (IS) group, which may benefit from the newest battle to attempt to make good points past the distant desert areas the place it nonetheless has a toehold.

The failure of insurgent factions to unite was one of many key components in Assad’s political survival. He and his supporters will probably be hoping that occasions play out in the identical approach once more.

For now, assist for the Syrian president because the least worst different nonetheless appears to be holding amongst a number of minority teams – together with in fact the Assads’ personal minority Alawite sect.

They concern what they view as a jihadist pressure taking on their cities and cities. HTS might have renounced its earlier affiliation with al-Qaeda, however many nonetheless see it as an extremist organisation.

In the top, what Assad’s destiny appears probably to hinge on is what the principle outdoors gamers in Syria determine.

Russia, Iran and Turkey have come to agreements earlier than over battle zones in Syria, most notably in Idlib 4 years in the past – however the fast shock escalation in Syria might have blindsided all of them.

They might all quickly should reassess and make a decision on what fits their pursuits – a Syria with Assad or with out.