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President Biden’s resolution to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with long-range missiles supplied by the US has sparked a livid response in Russia.
“Departing US president Joe Biden… has taken one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration, which risks catastrophic consequences,” declared the web site of the Russian authorities newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Monday morning.
Russian MP Leonid Slutsky, head of the pro-Kremlin Liberal-Democratic Party, predicted that the choice would “inevitably lead to a serious escalation, threatening serious consequences”.
Russian senator Vladimir Dzhabarov known as it “an unprecedented step towards World War Three”.
Anger, sure. But no actual shock.
Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, known as it “a predictable escalation”.
What actually counts, although, is what Vladimir Putin calls it and the way the Kremlin chief responds.
He mentioned nothing on Sunday evening.
But Russia’s president has mentioned a lot earlier than.
In latest months, the Kremlin has made its message to the West crystal clear: don’t do that, don’t take away restrictions on using your long-range weapons, don’t permit Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory with these missiles.
In September President Putin warned that if this had been allowed to occur, Moscow would view it because the “direct participation” of Nato countries in the Ukraine war.
“This would mean that Nato countries… are fighting with Russia,” he continued.
The following month, the Kremlin chief introduced imminent adjustments to the Russian nuclear doctrine, the doc setting out the preconditions underneath which Moscow may determine to make use of a nuclear weapon.
This was extensively interpreted as one other less-than-subtle trace to America and Europe to not permit Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles.
Guessing Vladimir Putin’s subsequent strikes is rarely simple.
But he has dropped hints.
Back in June, at a gathering with the heads of worldwide information companies, Putin was requested: how would Russia react if Ukraine was given the chance to hit targets on Russian territory with weapons provided by Europe?
“First, we will, of course, improve our air defence systems. We will be destroying their missiles,” President Putin replied.
“Second, we believe that if someone is thinking it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, why can’t we supply our weapons of the same class to those regions around the world where they will target sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?”
In different phrases, arming Western adversaries to strike Western targets overseas is one thing Moscow has been contemplating.
In my latest interview with Alexander Lukashenko, the chief of Belarus, Putin’s shut ally appeared to verify the Kremlin has been considering alongside these strains.
Mr Lukashenko informed me he had mentioned the topic at a latest assembly with Western officers.
“I warned them. ‘Guys, be careful with those long-range missiles,'” Mr Lukashenko informed me.
“The Houthi [rebels] might come to Putin and ask for coastal weapons systems that can carry out terrifying strikes on ships.
“And if he will get his revenge on you for supplying long-rage weapons to [President] Zelensky by supplying the Houthis with the Bastion missile system? What occurs if an plane provider is hit? A British or American one. What then?”
But some of the media reaction in Russia appeared designed to play things down.
“The Russian armed forces had already [previously] intercepted ATACMS missiles throughout assaults on the Crimean shore,” a military expert told the Izvestia newspaper, which went on to suggest that President-elect Trump might “revise” the decision.
This is, to put it mildly, an unusual situation.
In two months’ time, President Biden will be out of office and Donald Trump will be in the White House.
The Kremlin knows that President-elect Trump has been far more sceptical than President Biden about military assistance for Ukraine.
Will that be a consider Vladimir Putin’s calculations as he formulates Russia’s response?
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